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When I was a kid, my family & I would always go down to Florida every year to visit my grandparents in March.  Not so coincidentally those trips were always planned around Spring Training.  I remember standing by the bullpen or down the third base lines of Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter in hopes of scoring an autograph from a big league player.  Besides trying to get a lucky signature from someone (I did a fair amount), I was always awe struck when I got to see a household name up close.  I also immediately became bored once the regulars came out of the game.  I had no idea who any of these players were & I was too young to appreciate the development of prospects.  These days though, I don't have any interest in seeing the guarantees play during the Spring Training games because for them, it's just about getting back into a routine.

I am more interested in watching the young talent that is out there trying to make a name for themselves.  To me, that is why I look forward to Pitchers & Catchers reporting because it represents potential.  It is the official beginning of the 2012 season and the possibilities are endless.  The speculation is endless as well as the question "What if?"  "What if Dellin Betances harnesses the command of his plus stuff?"  "What if Austin Romine has added some power to his game?"  "What if Melky Mesa finally puts those ridiculous tools into consistent production?"  You can't help but get giddy over the thought, I know I can't.

Now don't get me wrong, I am not delusional into believing certain things will really happen (ie, Mesa putting it together) but you never know.  That's the exciting part of watching these kids during Spring Training. Maybe this is their year & if it truly is, that can alter the course of a franchise.  If a young talent starts producing like his potential suggests is possible, that is millions of dollars that the Yankees would save because they did not have to go out & poach that player from another roster.

I'd like to assume that the Yankees wished that they had Mark Melancon and Tyler Clippard back.  Those two plus Robertson would have given them a lights-out back end of the bullpen at very little cost.  Instead, we have a surly and inconsistent 7th inning reliever making more than those three combined.  The things I would have done if he opted out of that contract, I probably should just keep to myself.

This year, the only players in camp with the combination of proximity to the majors & franchise altering potential is Dellin Betances & Manny Banuelos.  Again, "What if?"  There is no denying their stuff, it's all about command with them.  Manny is more of a sure bet to lock it down because before last season, he hadn't had any command issues.  Dellin, with his great height, is a different story when it comes to locking down his command.  But what if?  If these two can remedy that one glaring issue and pitch to their potential, the Yankees would have two cost-controlled front of the rotation pitchers for years to come.  That kind of talent would cost a fortune and if Hal Steinbrenner truly wants to get payroll under $189Million, they are going to need the remaining B's to take that next step.

Austin Romine certainly has potential and with great offense being a luxury as opposed to a necessity at that position, he can help the Yankees' goal of getting under $189M.  Russell Martin isn't going to come cheap, especially after the huge deal that Yadier Molina signed to stay on with St. Louis.  Romine needs to put up a healthy and consistent year because he already has the necessary skills to be a backup catcher.  As I said, what if he adds power to his game?  The Yankees could let Martin walk and have themselves a cost-controlled catcher that can call a good game and swing the stick.

The next great wave of talent is on the cusp of helping the New York Yankees for years to come.  "What if?" can become a reality this season & you do not want to miss the show.

Before delving into my constantly evolving (and therefore somewhat arbitrary) rankings, I felt it would be prudent to provide a few token honorable mentions:

Zoilo Almonte has all the makings of a league-average corner outfielder. He's a switch hitter with five average or so tools (and increasing productivity against southpaws), and he could probably fake center field in a pinch without embarrassing himself terribly. The shockingly still only 22-year-old Jairo Heredia is perpetually a healthy year away from rocketing up the list, featuring above-average command and control on three potentially average offerings and fairly sound mechanics. Graham Stoneburner was featured prominently on this list last year, but injuries and slipping effectiveness revealed some nicks in the bedrock in what most would consider a low-risk, low-reward type prospect. David Adams, despite his injuries, continues to impress me with a fine approach at the plate, plus bat speed, and surprisingly strong defense at the keystone. At nearly 25, however, it is difficult to be ambitious with a player that has lost nearly a year of development ... with all of 173 PA above High-A. I really wanted to put Isaias Tejeda on the list, but he is simply too much of an unknown commodity for me to feel comfortable doing so. He is incredibly raw in all facets of the game, but he has above-average contact skills and athleticism, and that in and of itself is a sound foundation to build upon. And finally, Brandon Laird has made himself into a fine defender at third (and a passable defender in the other corners), which sounds appealing when taken in conjunction with his above-average power. His contact issues and lack of discipline, however, may limit him to a platoon role going forward.

Without further ado, I present the first installment of my top-20 prospects.


This selection is entirely predicated upon scouting reports and amateur competition, as Bird's professional debut was limited to thirteen plate appearances in rookie ball. While that should be an important consideration, I cannot help but feel that I may not have been ambitious enough with the powerful left-handed hitter. Bird, the recipient of a $1.1 MM bonus this past summer, has smooth swing mechanics, raw power to all fields, and demonstrably solid in-game power to right-field. He generates above-average bat speed and a fair bit of backspin on the ball, and Yankee Stadium is always the ideal environment for such a hitter. The non-obvious caveat here is that Bird, like Jesus Montero and Gary Sanchez before him, does not appear likely to stick behind the dish. However, I would argue that his issue is not a lack of athleticism, but rather size (in general) and rawness. That being said, I do believe that he is athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot, where the demands on his bat (which I do not anticipate to be an issue) would be slightly less than those at first base.


Duran's case is somewhat similar to that of Bird, in that there is a great deal of projection involved. Both have the makings of pure power hitters, neither seems destined to remain at their drafted position, and the terms 'hard worker' and 'gym rat' have been applied to both. The key difference, assuming that the gap between numbers nineteen and twenty is really a difference, is that Duran is a bit more polished at the plate, with a bit more contact and power ability. Duran has shown in-game power to all fields, as well. He raked in 96 rookie ball plate appearance, slashing .301/.365/.506 with 6 2B and 3 HR - a small sample size, to be sure, but impressive nonetheless. Unlike Cave, Duran does not appear to have much of a chance to contribute on defense, with few having faith that he is not a certain first baseman. His work ethic, however, should give him a fighting chance to be a non-butcher at the hot corner ... at least for a few years.


Turley may have the least impressive stuff of any of the pitchers on this list, but a far argument could be made that he may well have the lowest beta of the bunch. The physically imposing southpaw is listed at 6'6" and 230 lb, yet he deals mainly in deception and command, working off of a two-seamer topping out around 91 or 92 on his best days. A high-70s, low-80s change and a big, loopy curveball (his best offering) round out his arsenal, which he wields with remarkable command and control. Unlike most other veritable giants lumbering about the mound, Turley has the ability to maintain his mechanics and stay on top of the ball, allowing him to repeat his delivery and garner plenty of groundballs. His ceiling is likely limited to that of a third starter, but he seems a safe bet to be a contributor in a big league rotation (although safe is a relative term in prospecting).


Any analysis of Flores requires a fair bit of consternation on his ability to rise above the tweener label. While the formerly diminutive corner outfielder has grown quite a bit over the past few seasons (from roughly 5'10" and 150 pounds to 6'1" and closer to 200), his tools have remained relatively stable - above-average contact skills, strikezone judgment, and plate discipline, average-ish power, speed, and defense. He may well be the least exciting prospect on this list, yet it is not difficult to foresee him having the longest career of any Yankees farmhand. I believe comps can be misleading (and lazy) ... but I think a glance at the career of David DeJesus is a reasonable comparison for the type of player Flores can become.


Culver strikes me as the prototypical under-the-radar prospect that is ultimately far more impressive than most anyone realizes. As the second-youngest regular in New York-Penn League, Culver improved his walk and strikeout rates, showcased smoother actions and a surer arm in the field, and showed a smarter, more aggressive approach on the bases in comparison to his short-season debut. He is unlikely to offer much in the way of power, nor will he threaten for a batting title or steal more than fifteen to twenty bases - a decidedly unsexy offensive package, in short. However, he seems all but a lock to stick at shortstop, where he projects to provide above-average defense with slightly above-average offense for the position.


For all the puffery regarding placement on this list that will be found elsewhere, it is Ravel Santana that tossed the largest monkey wrench into my machinations. Santana is a true five-tool prospect, with above-average speed, range, and arm strength, potentially above-average power, and average contact skills. He has showcased fine plate discipline and strikezone judgment since his professional debut in 2009, and he has obliterated the competition in both the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League over the past two years. The caveat here is that Santana suffered a gruesome injury late last summer, breaking his ankle in two places and tearing multiple ligaments. Such an injury could have any number of long-term ramifications, both at the plate and in the field, and it is difficult to know if Santana will ever truly return to one-hundred percent. For all of this, he makes the cut ... and has the largest beta of any prospect mentioned herein.


I am far less bullish on Warren than I was at this time last season, on the heels of his regressing across the board while spending the entirety of 2011 in Triple-A. Warren lost nearly 2 K/9 (22.3% to 17.1% K), his groundball rate plummeted from an above-average 54% to a below-average 39%., and he added nearly a walk per inning. All told, his numbers were far from poor, but they remained wholly uninspiring. The silver lining with Warren is that his slider improved dramatically, with many scouts believing it to be a true swing-and-miss offering. The aforementioned strikeout rates do not match such a narrative, but Warren is relatively new to the world of the slider, and he is not terribly far removed from some fantastic numbers. His command and control remain positives, and I still view him as a potential three or four in a strong rotation.


It may be a bit misleading to say that Heathcott has played below his tools thus far, but his lack of consistency and results is at best bewildering. Heathcott and Ravel Santana are essentially two peas in a pod tools-wise (though Santana has more present power), with both facing disconcerting paths through the minors. The 2009 first-rounder lost yet another large chunk of development to left-shoulder surgery, which may well affect his ability to tap into his power potential in addition to the obvious issues with arm strength and accuracy. Moreover, the attitude issues that were discussed ad nauseum at the time Heathcott was drafted came to the surface a bit in 2011, when the Yankees prospect sparked a bench-clearing brawl. This ranking may appear a bit bearish, considering his jaw-dropping tools, but I consider it rather bullish when taken hand-in-hand with his injuries and merely solid production in a second tour through Charleston. I remain a believer, and I feel that this may be the most important year in Heathcott's development.


I cannot think of a prospect with respect to whom I have been more fickle than Romine. I have alternatively praised and doubted his bat and glove, and my view on him has ranged from back-up to solid regular to borderline All-Star. Much of the blame for this lay at the feet of the scouting reports raving about his physical tools, particularly behind the plate, but I would be remiss to suggest that my own lying eyes haven't played a role. Romine simply does not have the look (at face value) of a first division regular at this juncture, failing to put his admittedly strong tools on display with any semblance of consistency. Prospecting is an incredibly subjective balancing test, and I am finding it more and more difficult to rectify Romine's tools with his middling production. Romine did improve his walk and strikeout rates in his second go-round in Double-A, and he was probably hindered by being stuck in Double-A for almost the entirety of 2011 due to the team's stubbornness in promoting Montero to the show ... but I want and need to say more to view him as more than a potentially average-ish backstop.


Shoulder tendinitis likely robbed Phelps of the opportunity to make it to the Bronx this past season, and may have sealed his fate as future trade fodder for the Yankees. Pessimism aside, Phelps had a fine 2011 season, showcasing above-average command and control of four roughly average offerings, including a fastball that sits around 92 MPH - e.g. the fringe third/solid fourth starter starter kit. The shoulder ailment is somewhat disconcerting, particularly when discussing a prospect that will be 26 when the postseason kicks off, but Phelps returned to Scranton without really missing a beat, then turned in a strong month in the Arizona Fall League. Should calamity strike the rotation, Phelps will be the first reinforcement from the farm - and I think he could perform quite well as soon as April. And if you squint really hard, you can still see seventy-five percent of Mike Mussina.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

This entry was posted in part on The Yankee Analysts.

Prospects with flashy tools and unparalleled athleticism often find themselves on the fast track into my heart. Those that are able to couple such glamor with results and other positive indicators are enough to make me swoon. Angelo Gumbs is such a prospect, and I would not be surprised to see him garnering praise this time next year a la Mason Williams … who may well be, dare I say, a slightly less athletic, less powerful version of Gumbs.

At face value, Gumbs’ 2011 production may be categorized as somewhat lacking. In prospecting, though, one must always dig deeper. The future center fielder was the youngest regular in the New York-Penn League this past season, checking in as nearly two months younger than Cito Culver (the second youngest). It’s also worth noting that he is nearly fourteen months younger than Williams – and this, at an age where physical and emotional maturity is of the utmost importance. In terms of tools, Gumbs has plus speed, plus bat speed, plus range at second (and likely plus-plus range in center), solid arm strength, and (possibly) future average power. He has a larger frame and more physicality than either Culver or Williams, and more natural loft in his swing (which often portends over-the-fence power). While he may not hit more than 10 or 15 home runs a year, he would not need to to have a ton of value.

As a little nota bene – I do think he has the tools to stay at second base, where he could likewise be a tremendous player.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

The following is being syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.

On the heels of what may well be the most intriguing deal of the off-season, the acquisition of Jose Campos has been somewhat lost in the ephemera. This is certainly somewhat justifiable, as Jesus Montero has been the Yankees top prospect for the past few seasons, and Michael Pineda represents the veritable white whale to follow CC Sabathia in the Yankees rotation (and, interestingly enough, has been labeled as a potential right-handed doppelganger of the ace). Both players are likely to have enormous impacts on the respective fates of the Mariners and Yankees, for better or worse … where Campos is unlikely to even reach the Majors prior to 2014. That being said, the inclusion of Campos may well be the factor that swings the balance in favor of Cashman and company.

Signed out of Venezuela three years ago today, the 19-year-old Campos made his stateside debut in the short season Northwest League in 2011. The 6’4″, 195 lb right-hander paced the NWL in strikeouts, while leading all starters in K/BB (6.54) and ranking third in ERA (2.32) and K/9 (9.4). This is made all the more impressive by Campos’ status as the fourth-youngest pitcher in the league.

Campos works with a fairly standard three-pitch repertoire at this point – a four-seamer, a curveball, and a change-up. At this juncture, Campos’ fastball is his bread-and-butter. It sits between 92 and 95 MPH, occasionally touching 98, and it features excellent late life. It is made all the more effective by his ability to consistently command the pitch, painting the corners at will. Campos’ curve has shown flashes of being an average to above-average offering, though the consistency of its break is far outpaced by his ability to command the pitch (which is less of an issue than the opposite, in the minds of many). At its best, the curve is a true power pitch with fantastic movement … and Campos has plenty of time to improve. Campos’ change has improved by leaps and bounds since his signing, but it shares the same issues of inconsistency as his curve. That he can command it well at only 19 is impressive, to be sure, and, again, there isn’t much of a rush. It is also worth noting that many scouts have praised his mechanics, noting that he was very willing to listen to coaching with the Mariners in cleaning up his delivery. This, taken in conjunction with his build, should be paramount in his durability.

As it stands, there is precious little information beyond scouting reports and 81 IP in the United States. The consensus, based upon said reports and statistics, is that Campos profiles as a third starter with the potential for much more – a consensus that I believe to be quite fair, though Campos’ full-season debut with Low-A Charleston will be very telling in this regard. For the time being, Campos should slot in behind Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances as the third-best pitching prospect in the system (no small feat), while joining Dante Bichette, Jr. and Mason Williams on what may be the most exciting team in the Yankees organization.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

This post is syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.

Tweener.

With the noteworthy exception of ‘bust,’ I am unsure that there is a more dreadful label in the scouting community than ‘tweener’ – particularly when such a label is affixed to a prospect within your team’s organization. It may not quite evoke the kiss of death as we associate with a bust, yet it is almost always offered hand-in-hand with terms like ‘fourth outfielder’ or ‘utility infielder’ or ‘spot starter.’ While it is a matter of fact that a team needs players to fill such roles, it serves as a sobering reminder that the minor leagues are not brimming with potential franchise players and staff anchors.

Tweener.

Ramon Flores, signed for $775,000 in 2008, has been pigeonholed as a tweener. Standing at 5’10″ and generously listed at between 150 and 160 lbs., the 19-year-old Dominican lacks the range to play center field, yet his power and potential for power (or lack thereof) profiles best up the middle. As it stands, projections for double-digit home runs may be considered overly ambitious. Flores’ above-average to plus arm strength and average range will certainly allow him to be a solid-average left or right fielder, yet he does not offer the premium speed nor the awe inspiring glovework of Brett Gardner to enable him to shatter the mold.

None of this is to say that Flores is a non-prospect, or anything of that nature. Rather, what Flores lacks in flash, he makes up for in strike zone judgment, plate discipline, and contact skills. In 2010, he led the Rookie Level Gulf Coast League in OBP, and placed second in BB and BB/K as one of the youngest regulars in the league. This past season, Flores placed in the top-ten in BB and BB/K in Low-A, despite checking-in at roughly three years younger than the average South Atlantic League Regular. Only a handful of regulars younger than Flores finished the season with a higher OBP – the list includes Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Jurickson Profar, none of whom should fall outside of the top thirty or so of most major prospect lists. It would be quite a stretch to suggest that Flores is within the same stratosphere of such prospects, to be sure, but it remains indicative of fine discipline and a discerning eye at the plate.

Flores’ contact skills and willingness to take a walk should also serve to mitigate his lack of power, and critiques of his power potential should not be taken as insinuations that pitchers can simply knock the bat out of his hands. The slight lefty utilizes the entire field, and his above-average bat speed allows him to drive the ball into the gaps, which should help him rack up extra-base hits. Aggressiveness and strong base-running instincts should translate into a surprising number of triples and stolen bases, as well.

To many, this may conjure images of Brett Gardner with twenty-pound ankle weights. For the less pessimistic observer, David DeJesus serves as an almost ideal comparison (or at least as ideal as a comp can be). The lack of over the fence power will likely leave much of Flores’ value tied into his BABIP, yet he should walk at an above-average rate while providing above-average glovework in either corner. In the best case scenario, Flores may well be an ideal two-hole bat.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Happy New Year!

As always, I recommend you read the article in its entirety, as it contains a great deal of worthwhile, interesting commentary. For those of you who may be interesting, I'm currently cobbling together scouting reports and drafting my personal Top-30 - it should be complete sometime in mid-January. Without further ado:

01. Jesus Montero
02. Gary Sanchez
03. Manny Banuelos
04. Dellin Betances
05. Mason Williams
06. Dante Bichette, Jr.
07. David Phelps
08. Ravel Santana
09. Tyler Austin
10. Adam Warren
11. Austin Romine
12. J.R. Murphy
13. Cito Culver
14. Brett Marshall
15. Slade Heathcott
16. Angelo Gumbs
17. Nik Turley
18. Daniel Lopez
19. David Adams
20. Ramon Flores

I suspect my list will be fairly similar within the scope of the top handful or so, but the rest will likely be a jumbled mess ... comparatively speaking. I am quite surprised by the ambitious placements of David Phelps and Tyler Austin; while I certainly agree with his commentary, I had previously seen the two ranked much farther down the list, if placing at all.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Yesterday, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus posted an endlessly intriguing and entirely speculative article on both BP and ESPN Insider - what would it take to pry Cole Hamels away from the Phillies?

Working with an unnamed MLB executive, Mr. Goldstein determined that the Phillies would, or perhaps should, look for a replacement in the rotation, bullpen help, insurance for the middle infield, and athletes with high upside. Mr. Goldstein then breaks down several potential offers from eight teams ... one of which is, of course, the New York Yankees. The content is insider-only, but the Yankees package is comprised of Manny Banuelos, Hector Noesi, Austin Romine, and Mason Williams.

First, allow me to say that I would accept that deal in a heartbeat were I in Cashman's shoes. I would help the players pack and drive them to the airport myself, then pat myself on the back for a job well-done.

That being said, however, I do feel that this deal is a bit ... light. Banuelos and Noesi could provide some immediate help in the rotation or bullpen, to be sure, but things get shaky beyond the two. Romine is fairly close to the Majors, but Ruiz is signed to a very team-friendly deal through the end of next season, and I'm just not too sure that the Phillies would jump on Romine as a key to a deal for Cole Hamels with that in mind, regardless of Romine's up and down 2011. Mason Williams is a stud prospect, and I think he'll make a few appearances on top-hundred lists - but he's several years away, and so much can go wrong in such a long period of time. Banuelos, Noesi, and Romine could help the team immediately, and Williams would be one of their top prospects ... but it seems too paltry, to me.

What, then, would I give up for Hamels? Or, perhaps more realistically, what do I think the Phillies would ask for? Considering Mr. Goldstein's very sensible criteria, I would think something like this could make such a deal happen - Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Romine, Eduardo Nunez, Corban Joseph, and Williams. Betances injects more upside into the deal, and he could likely step into the bullpen and dominate immediately. Nunez and Joseph provide insurance at SS and 2B, respectively. Nunez's shaky defense is certainly a hindrance, but the tools for success remain there.

Would I do that deal? It would be hard not to, in my mind. It's certainly a shot to the system, but Hamels is a legitimate ace - and he won't turn 28 until December. He's lefthanded, he induces a nice amount of ground balls, he strikes out nearly a batter an inning, and his walk rates are consistently above-average. If such a package could bring Hamels to New York with a long-term deal ... I don't think anyone in their right mind could say no.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza